| Joseph Gasper
Johns Hopkins University
Does involvement in adolescent delinquincy increase the risk of dropping out of school?
A large body of research has established that high school dropouts are more involved in delinquent and criminal behavior than high school graduates. However, there is considerable debate over exactly how to interpret this finding. Four possible explanations have been offered: (1) delinquency causes dropout, (2) dropping out leads to increased criminal behavior, (3) there is a reciprocal or bidirectional relationship (i.e., delinquency leads to dropout, and school leaving has an impact on offending), or (4) delinquency and dropout have no effects on each other; rather, both behaviors are symptoms of some underlying problem that has its roots in early childhood. While several studies have addressed the question of whether dropping out increases subsequent criminal offending, delinquency as a possible cause of dropping out has received much less attention. In this dissertation a life course perspective is applied to the relationship between early delinquency and later dropping out. Data from waves one through seven of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) is used to examine the effects of delinquency on dropout between the ages of 14 and 19 and to identify the variables that mediate these relationships. Latent class analysis is used to identify classes of youth with distinct patterns of delinquency during adolescence. Discrete time event history regression models with fixed effects predict the occurrence and timing of dropout while controlling for potential common causes of both behaviors. Whereas research on dropping out usually treats dropout as a permanent condition, this study distinguishes long-term dropouts from short-term "stopouts" who obtain a GED certificate or diploma to better understand how delinquency may lead youth down different paths to school leaving.
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